US fertility desires and outcomes: new mixed-mode research
An extensive new survey by non-profit organization Population Connection and Lake Research Partners sheds light on declining birth rates, revealing that Americans have an established preference for small family sizes, and that concerns around the state of the world and finances play a big role in people’s childbearing decisions.
Population Connection Vice President for Communications, Marian Starkey, says,
"Our research reveals that the majority of people actually want small families and have many good reasons for that preference. We found that the most important limiting factors on people’s childbearing decisions are concern over the state of the world and affordability, while many are also worried about mental health, reproductive rights restrictions, and how our deteriorating environment will affect kids. This indicates that to help people achieve their desired number of children, governments should focus on implementing policies that improve social welfare, health, and environmental protection.
"Unfortunately, the Trump administration has a terrible track record on these types of policies, and its members’ creepy push for more births is increasingly looking like ‘The Handmaid’s Tale.’"
Elon Musk, who is strongarming his way into all branches of the federal government, has been fearmongering about “population collapse” driven by small family sizes for years.
In his first speech as Vice President, at the “March for Life” in Washington, DC, JD Vance admitted that he opposes abortion because he wants “more babies in the United States of America.”
Similarly, shortly after Sean Duffy was confirmed as Transportation Secretary, he circulated a bizarre order instructing his department to prioritize communities with above-average marriage and birth rates when awarding grants.
Marian Starkey says,
"These far-right pronatalists clearly don’t care about children’s and parents’ well-being. They are driven by greed and nationalism and just want an endless supply of babies to fuel our deeply unsustainable economy, to bolster military ranks, and to counter ethnic and racial diversification from immigration."
Survey results
The mixed-mode survey of 1,418 US-based adults was conducted by Lake Research Partners on behalf of Population Connection. A series of focus group discussions were also held to learn more about people’s thoughts around parenthood.
The survey found that the majority (55%) of adults under 50 desire a small family of zero to two kids. When asked which factors had a major impact on their ability or decision to have children, the top factors for adults under 50 were concern over the state of the world (35% said this had a major impact) and not being able to afford [more] kids (34% said this had a major impact).
For Gen Z respondents and women under 50, close to a third also said that mental health and worries about how restrictions on abortion and reproductive health care would impact them or their partner during pregnancy have had a major impact on their family planning decisions.
For adults under 50 who don’t plan on having kids, not wanting them was by far the most important factor (46% said this had a major impact), supporting previous studies’ findings on the growing popularity of the childfree choice.
Additional survey findings:
Actual vs. desired family size
- Across all survey participants, the most common family size was zero children (37% of respondents have no children), which is significantly higher than the number of respondents who said they desire no children (12%). While this difference can be attributed in part to Gen Z and younger Millennial participants not having started childbearing yet, it also suggests that many childless people would like or would have liked to become parents but feel or felt unable to. A plurality (44%) of parents have the same number of children as their desired number of children, while 39% desire more than they have now.
- Across all respondents as well as among people under 50, a two-child family was by far the most desired family size, with 36% and 34%, respectively, preferring this size
Limiting factors
- Survey participants were also asked how much they agree with a variety of statements — close to half of respondents under 50 strongly agreed that basics like food and housing cost so much that it forces people to prioritize jobs and income over having children (51% strongly agreed), and that sometimes people want to spend their time, energy, and love doing other things than raising children (49% strongly agreed).
- Over a quarter (27%) of respondents under 50 strongly agreed that overpopulation and climate change make them uneasy about raising children on a planet that is already in trouble.
“Baby bust” vs. population growth concerns
- A statement about how falling fertility rates are one of the biggest challenges facing our world received the lowest amount of agreement, with only 15% of total respondents strongly agreeing.
- Nearly half of all respondents (45%) said they were ‘very’ to ‘somewhat’ concerned about national population growth, while half (50%) were ‘very’ to ‘somewhat’ concerned about global population growth.
- The top cited reasons for concern over population growth were more kids living in poverty (37% said they are most concerned about this impact) and natural resource depletion (28% said they are most concerned about this impact).
Focus group quotes
A Millennial woman focus group participant with a blended family of five kids said,
"Day care is costly. Education is costly. I'm saving for each one of them for their college education right now. Only two [children] instead of five would have been a lot easier. For financial reasons and just the crazy world we live in."
A Gen Z man focus group participant said,
"I think a lot of people who are perhaps older than us have the [number of] children they want. But I think a lot of people around my age, which is like 20s, maybe early 30s, would maybe have more children if they were more financially stable."
Contact: Olivia Nater, Communications Manager, onater@popconnect.org | +1 202-974-7739
Population Connection is the largest grassroots population organization in the United States, educating young people and advocating progressive action to stabilize world population at a level that can be sustained by Earth’s resources.
2120 L Street NW, Suite 500
Washington, DC 20037
Washington, DC 20037
Notes for editors:
Methodology
- Survey: On behalf of Population Connection, Lake Research Partners designed and administered this mixed-mode survey that was conducted from October 3-10, 2024, by contacting participants directly online, via text message (a portion of the sample received a text to their cell phone with a link to complete the survey online), and by phone using professional telephone interviewers. The survey reached a total of 1,418 adults nationwide, which included a representative base of 1,018 plus oversamples of 100 Black adults, 100 Latino/a adults, 100 Generation Z adults, and 100 Millennial adults. The oversamples were weighed down into their respective base samples to their proper proportion of the universe.
- Focus Groups: On behalf of Population Connection, Lake Research Partners conducted three online focus groups and two in-person focus groups from August 6 to 12, 2024. Participants for the online groups were recruited nationally and participants for the in-person groups were recruited from Charlotte, North Carolina. Participants were recruited to represent a mix of race, educational attainment, urbanicity, marital status, parental status, party identification, ideology, choice stance (excluding those who believe all abortion should be illegal), employment status, household income, importance for all people to have access to reproductive health care, and agreement on whether we must take action to combat climate change (excluding those who strongly disagree).
